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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-06 / 16 starters
Market
Lines
PHI at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betonlineag / U -101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%under
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

NYY at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanatics / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

HOU at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mike BurrowsHOU starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -144 draftkings / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Miles MikolasWSN starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 fanduel / U -174 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

NYM at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIL at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -156 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betrivers / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.56%over
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

ARI at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 bovada / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +131 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TOR at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +135 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

COL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -150 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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