MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-05 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
NYM at ATL Jul 5, 10:30 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNolan McLean NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -138 fanduel / U +119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 fanduel / U -152 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
PIT at WSN Jul 5, 11:00 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -113 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +126 fanduel / U -142 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% under
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 53% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at CIN Jul 5, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -109 betonlineag / U -105 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -102 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIN at NYY Jul 5, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 6.6 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -110 betmgm / U +106 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 34% over
O 8.5 23% over
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Ryan Weathers NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 fanduel / U +113 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at CLE Jul 5, 12:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Murphy CHW starter / away
Projected K 2.3 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 67% under
O 2.5 41% under
O 3.5 21% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
STL at CHC Jul 5, 12:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 draftkings / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Javier Assad CHC starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 bovada / U -127 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
PHI at KCR Jul 5, 1:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +123 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Luinder Avila KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +136 fanduel / U -165 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at TEX Jul 5, 1:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize DET starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -172 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -142 fanduel / U +123 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at HOU Jul 5, 1:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Englert TBR starter / away
Projected K 2.5 Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betonlineag / U -112 betrivers 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% over
O 2.5 46% over
O 3.5 25% over
O 4.5 12% over
O 5.5 5% over
O 6.5 2% over
O 7.5 1% over
O 8.5 0% over
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U -118 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SFG at COL Jul 5, 2:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Mahle SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 draftkings / U +142 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +116 draftkings / U -125 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIL at ARI Jul 5, 2:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +134 fanduel / U -159 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 fanatics / U -130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at OAK Jul 5, 2:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 betmgm / U +117 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 fanduel / U -139 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TOR at SEA Jul 5, 3:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrey Yesavage TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -160 betmgm / U +128 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Emerson Hancock SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +111 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at LAD Jul 5, 5:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJP Sears SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betmgm / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Emmet Sheehan LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U +103 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BOS at LAA Jul 5, 7:30 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +112 betrivers / U -125 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 draftkings / U -146 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.