MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-04 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
PIT at WSN Jul 4, 9:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +115 betmgm / U -122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 53% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Carson Palmquist WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIN at NYY Jul 4, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 fanduel / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brendan Beck NYY starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.4 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at TEX Jul 4, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Flaherty DET starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betrivers / U -111 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Cal Quantrill TEX starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% under
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TOR at SEA Jul 4, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Bieber TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 62% over
O 6.5 47% over
O 7.5 33% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TBR at HOU Jul 4, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -128 fanduel / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHW at CLE Jul 4, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Burke CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +102 fanduel / U -121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% under
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 56% under
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at CIN Jul 4, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -132 draftkings / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Hunter Greene CIN starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -137 betrivers / U +122 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
STL at CHC Jul 4, 6:08 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Leahy STL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +140 bovada / U -156 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 betrivers / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% over
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
NYM at ATL Jul 4, 6:08 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 betrivers / U +101 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Chris Sale ATL starter / home
Projected K 7.9 Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +105 betmgm / U -120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 95% under
O 4.5 88% under
O 5.5 79% under
O 6.5 66% under
O 7.5 53% under
O 8.5 40% under
O 9.5 29% under
O 10.5 19% under
O 11.5 12% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at KCR Jul 4, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJesús Luzardo PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +117 betrivers / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 21% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -116 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SFG at COL Jul 4, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobbie Ray SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean Sullivan COL starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 60% over
O 3.5 38% over
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BOS at LAA Jul 4, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +115 betmgm / U -121 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Sam Aldegheri LAA starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 draftkings / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIA at OAK Jul 4, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 betmgm / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Aaron Civale OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 draftkings / U +106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIL at ARI Jul 4, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Woodruff MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -116 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SDP at LAD Jul 4, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWandy Peralta SDP starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 0 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 62% under
O 2.5 36% under
O 3.5 17% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 bovada / U -126 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% over
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.