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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-03 / 26 starters
Market
Lines
STL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -133 draftkings / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

PIT at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 draftkings / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%under
O 3.588%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIN at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mike ParedesMIN starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 draftkings / U -140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betonlineag / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHW at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -133 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

BAL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -145 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

NYM at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

SFG at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -180 fanduel / U +140 bovada2 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betonlineag / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%over
O 7.53%over
O 8.51%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

TBR at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +128 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

BOS at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -164 draftkings / U +135 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -148 fanduel / U +125 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIA at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -148 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 draftkings / U -141 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

MIL at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -149 betonlineag / U +127 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Jose CabreraARI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TOR at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K8.1Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -162 fanduel / U +126 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 7.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.580%over
O 6.568%over
O 7.555%over
O 8.542%over
O 9.530%under
O 10.521%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Luis CastilloSEA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SDP at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +110 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shohei OhtaniLAD starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -142 fanduel / U +115 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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