Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has HOU 62% despite TBR's superior record (50-33 vs 43-46) and offense (5.7 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4 RPG, .695 OPS). Market sees coin flip at -10...

Model has ARI at 62% despite MIL's superior record (53-31 vs 43-43) and offensive metrics (.972 OPS vs .564). Market correctly favors MIL at 58.5%....

Market has STL +115 (46% implied) vs model's 42% for CHC. Peterson's 5.86 ERA in 73.7 IP is concerning; STL's .812 OPS despite 3.6 RPG suggests str...