sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-23 / 10 starters
Market
Lines
SDP at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle HartSDP starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.575%under
O 2.551%under
O 3.529%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +121 draftkings / U -148 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

MIN at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -156 fanduel / U +125 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanduel / U +117 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.567%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.517%over
O 10.510%over
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

TBR at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey LeguminaTBR starter / away
Projected K1.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.552%over
O 2.526%under
O 3.511%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -150 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ARI at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K3.1Did not start / void
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U -103 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%
O 2.559%
O 3.538%
O 4.521%
O 5.510%
O 6.54%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 draftkings / U -136 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

KCR at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +139 draftkings / U -165 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 fanatics / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg