MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-22 / 34 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
PIT at NYY Jul 22, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Keller PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 betrivers / U -142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 3% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
BAL at BOS Jul 22, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -124 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 52%
O 5.5 35%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Eduardo Rivera BOS starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89%
O 2.5 73%
O 3.5 53%
O 4.5 35%
O 5.5 20%
O 6.5 10%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
NYM at MIL Jul 22, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChristian Scott NYM starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 fanatics / U -101 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Logan Henderson MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -122 fanduel / U +102 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
SFG at KCR Jul 22, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betrivers / U -148 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Seth Lugo KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +103 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
WSN at COL Jul 22, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Cavalli WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +116 betonlineag / U -143 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Gabriel Hughes COL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -140 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CIN at SEA Jul 22, 1:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Singer CIN starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 draftkings / U -142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Emerson Hancock SEA starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 betrivers / U -111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
OAK at ARI Jul 22, 1:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 fanatics / U -121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +132 fanduel / U -167 betrivers 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at LAA Jul 22, 2:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Dobbins STL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 fanatics / U -131 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% over
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -136 betrivers / U +120 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAD at PHI Jul 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEric Lauer LAD starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 40% over
O 4.5 22% over
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIN at CLE Jul 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBailey Ober MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 64%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Slade Cecconi CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -148 betrivers / U +125 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PIT at NYY Jul 22, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Will Warren NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -113 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TBR at TOR Jul 22, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Jax TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Braydon Fisher TOR starter / home
Projected K 2.0 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 59% under
O 2.5 33% under
O 3.5 15% under
O 4.5 6% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
BAL at BOS Jul 22, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +136 fanduel / U -155 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rivera BOS starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +108 draftkings / U -122 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SDP at ATL Jul 22, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -130 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHW at TEX Jul 22, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -138 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tyler Alexander TEX starter / home
Projected K 2.9 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% under
O 2.5 55% under
O 3.5 34% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIA at HOU Jul 22, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +126 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 65% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at CHC Jul 22, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKeider Montero DET starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 fanatics / U -108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 59% over
O 3.5 37% over
O 4.5 20% over
O 5.5 10% over
O 6.5 4% over
O 7.5 2% over
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Colin Rea CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 draftkings / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.