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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-09 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CIN at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady SingerCIN starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Brad LordWSN starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYM at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TOR at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -116 draftkings / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.566%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.516%over
O 10.510%over
O 11.56%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

ATL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 fanduel / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.513%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

OAK at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
J.T. GinnOAK starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Erik MillerBOS starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%over
O 2.534%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

LAA at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -150 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 5.522%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 betonlineag / U +105 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIN at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanatics / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.1Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -122 fanduel / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.587%over
O 6.578%over
O 7.567%over
O 8.555%over
O 9.543%under
O 10.532%under
O 11.522%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

CHC at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betonlineag / U -117 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -130 draftkings / U +112 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 2.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CLE at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -119 draftkings / U +100 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%under
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

COL at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +137 draftkings / U -174 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +110 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

BAL at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade PovichBAL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 betrivers / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

DET at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -161 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TBR at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 fanduel / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 betonlineag / U -127 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAD at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -165 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 betrivers / U +114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

HOU at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristian JavierHOU starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 draftkings / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Randy VásquezSDP starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -127 betrivers / U +118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 2.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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