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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-11 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
PIT at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -140 fanduel / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 bovada / U -115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CLE at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Drew AndersonDET starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 betonlineag / U -151 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHC at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake IrvinWSN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -154 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SEA at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -140 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -152 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

BOS at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 fanduel / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K8.6Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -147 draftkings / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.592%over
O 5.584%over
O 6.574%over
O 7.562%under
O 8.549%under
O 9.537%under
O 10.526%under
O 11.518%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

NYM at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 fanatics / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +119 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BAL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CIN at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K7.4Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.584%over
O 5.573%over
O 6.559%over
O 7.545%over
O 8.532%under
O 9.522%under
O 10.514%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

PHI at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanduel / U +125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betrivers / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TEX at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cody BradfordTEX starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +134 fanduel / U -157 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -131 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TBR at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Mason BarnettOAK starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 bovada / U -130 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

COL at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -130 fanatics / U +116 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 2.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

HOU at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betmgm / U +125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -113 draftkings / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

KCR at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 draftkings / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Blake SnellLAD starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 betmgm / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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