MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-27 / 14 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
COL at WSN Aug 27, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGabriel Hughes COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +103 betonlineag / U -120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Jake Irvin WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +113 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BAL at STL Aug 27, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 fanduel / U +114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Gordon Graceffo STL starter / home
Projected K 2.5 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 71% over
O 2.5 45% over
O 3.5 25% over
O 4.5 11% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
HOU at NYY Aug 27, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHayden Wesneski HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +104 draftkings / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betmgm / U +115 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
KCR at TOR Aug 27, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Spencer Arrighetti TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at NYM Aug 27, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Misiorowski MIL starter / away
Projected K 8.1 Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O -125 fanatics / U +107 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 8.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 95% over
O 4.5 89% over
O 5.5 80% over
O 6.5 68% under
O 7.5 55% under
O 8.5 42% under
O 9.5 30% under
O 10.5 21% under
O 11.5 13% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Sean Manaea NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +116 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
LAD at ATL Aug 27, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -150 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Chris Sale ATL starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 70% over
O 6.5 56% over
O 7.5 42% over
O 8.5 29% over
O 9.5 19% over
O 10.5 12% over
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
ARI at SFG Aug 27, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJose Cabrera ARI starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 75% over
O 2.5 52% over
O 3.5 30% over
O 4.5 15% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Landen Roupp SFG starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +117 draftkings / U -130 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.