MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-28 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CIN at CHC Aug 28, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRhett Lowder CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -121 draftkings / U +118 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
David Peterson CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -147 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAD at DET Aug 28, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal LAD starter / away
Projected K 7.2 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -157 draftkings / U +135 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 71% over
O 6.5 58% over
O 7.5 44% under
O 8.5 31% under
O 9.5 21% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Drew Anderson DET starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIA at WSN Aug 28, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -111 fanduel / U +100 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jackson Kent WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 betmgm / U +134 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SDP at TBR Aug 28, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 fanduel / U -117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 fanduel / U -126 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
HOU at NYM Aug 28, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Brown HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betrivers / U -149 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% over
O 9.5 4% over
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Christian Scott NYM starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -142 fanduel / U +119 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% under
O 3.5 84% under
O 4.5 71% under
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
KCR at CLE Aug 28, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 10 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -154 fanduel / U +124 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SEA at TOR Aug 28, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEmerson Hancock SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -122 fanduel / U -104 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Dylan Cease TOR starter / home
Projected K 8.7 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +105 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 97% over
O 4.5 92% over
O 5.5 85% over
O 6.5 75% over
O 7.5 63% over
O 8.5 50% under
O 9.5 38% under
O 10.5 27% under
O 11.5 18% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
BOS at NYY Aug 28, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPatrick Sandoval BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -105 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -125 betmgm / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
COL at ATL Aug 28, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTomoyuki Sugano COL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -175 betmgm / U +146 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 71%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -132 betrivers / U +115 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at MIL Aug 28, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCody Bradford TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -109 draftkings / U -104 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Logan Henderson MIL starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -104 fanduel / U -115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CHW at MIN Aug 28, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo CHW starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% under
O 2.5 59% under
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -147 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PIT at STL Aug 28, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJared Jones PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 bovada / U +125 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Quinn Mathews STL starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -114 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
PHI at LAA Aug 28, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +121 draftkings / U -138 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +128 fanduel / U -130 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% under
O 3.5 86% under
O 4.5 74% under
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BAL at OAK Aug 28, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +112 fanduel / U -138 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
ARI at SFG Aug 28, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKohl Drake ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -117 draftkings / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Blade Tidwell SFG starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 fanatics / U +110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.