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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-29 / 34 starters
Market
Lines
BOS at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.8Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.569%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K2.9Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%
O 2.555%
O 3.533%
O 4.517%
O 5.58%
O 6.53%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

LAD at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betonlineag / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.550%over
O 7.536%over
O 8.524%over
O 9.515%over
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +104 betonlineag / U -118 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CHW at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Erick FeddeCHW starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +100 betmgm / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%over
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 betmgm / U +133 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PIT at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.575%over
O 2.551%under
O 3.529%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.575%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CIN at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -123 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 fanduel / U -145 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SEA at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kade AndersonSEA starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -125 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIA at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -146 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 6.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

ARI at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -168 draftkings / U +132 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 2.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%over
O 2.544%over
O 3.523%over
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SDP at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +121 draftkings / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

HOU at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bennett SousaHOU starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 draftkings / U +116 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

KCR at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +100 betmgm / U -122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

COL at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zach AgnosCOL starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

BOS at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Alec GamboaBOS starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TEX at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 bovada / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.54%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ARI at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Yunior MarteSFG starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BAL at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -152 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PHI at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -103 betonlineag / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 fanatics / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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