MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-30 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
MIA at WSN Aug 30, 10:15 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -148 draftkings / U +130 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 2.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +134 fanduel / U -154 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BOS at NYY Aug 30, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 betonlineag / U -145 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Will Warren NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 betmgm / U +122 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
COL at ATL Aug 30, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Adams COL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U -109 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle ATL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 bovada / U +100 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
SEA at TOR Aug 30, 11:37 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Gilbert SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 draftkings / U +126 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer TOR starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -130 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% over
O 9.5 1% over
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
SDP at TBR Aug 30, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobbie Ray SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 bovada / U -120 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAD at DET Aug 30, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Glasnow LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +136 fanduel / U -160 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Framber Valdez DET starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -141 betonlineag / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
KCR at CLE Aug 30, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSeth Lugo KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -147 betonlineag / U +117 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHW at MIN Aug 30, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJordan Hicks CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Zebby Matthews MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -146 fanduel / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TEX at MIL Aug 30, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKumar Rocker TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U +102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Dustin May MIL starter / home
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -149 betonlineag / U +123 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 21%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 59% over
O 3.5 37% over
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PIT at STL Aug 30, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -144 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 betrivers / U +118 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 28% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at NYM Aug 30, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEthan Pecko HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +106 draftkings / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +113 betonlineag / U -108 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BAL at OAK Aug 30, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Bassitt BAL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 fanatics / U -129 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betmgm / U -112 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PHI at LAA Aug 30, 2:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 7.2 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 betrivers / U -118 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 83% over
O 5.5 71% over
O 6.5 57% under
O 7.5 43% under
O 8.5 30% under
O 9.5 20% under
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Yusei Kikuchi LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 betrivers / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CIN at CHC Aug 30, 5:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -139 draftkings / U +116 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% under
O 5.5 59% under
O 6.5 44% under
O 7.5 30% under
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.