MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-31 / 24 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
SFG at ATL Aug 31, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 2.9 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -143 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 8%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78%
O 2.5 55%
O 3.5 33%
O 4.5 18%
O 5.5 8%
O 6.5 3%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Martín Pérez ATL starter / home
Projected K 2.8 Did not start / void
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -128 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 16%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76%
O 2.5 52%
O 3.5 31%
O 4.5 16%
O 5.5 7%
O 6.5 3%
O 7.5 1%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
NYM at TBR Aug 31, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Stock NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +125 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -142 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 29% over
O 8.5 19% over
O 9.5 11% over
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
SDP at CIN Aug 31, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -130 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIA at WSN Aug 31, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Gusto MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Will Dion WSN starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.4 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U -101 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% under
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SEA at BOS Aug 31, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Kirby SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 fanatics / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 76% over
O 5.5 61% over
O 6.5 46% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at MIN Aug 31, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJackson Jobe DET starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 draftkings / U -110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
MIL at CHC Aug 31, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Harrison MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -132 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Clay Holmes CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 betonlineag / U -156 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
OAK at TEX Aug 31, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -105 betonlineag / U -110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 28% over
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CHW at HOU Aug 31, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 bovada / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
BAL at COL Aug 31, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Povich BAL starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -120 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 bovada / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at LAA Aug 31, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastElmer Rodríguez NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -101 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +123 betrivers / U -138 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
PHI at ARI Aug 31, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -117 betrivers / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.