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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-01 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
NYM at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -156 fanduel / U +127 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SFG at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -175 betmgm / U +138 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TOR at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer MilesTOR starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%under
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.2Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -145 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%over
O 7.542%over
O 8.530%over
O 9.520%over
O 10.512%over
O 11.57%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

SDP at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 draftkings / U -146 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -102 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ATL at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake IrvinWSN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -130 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SEA at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 betrivers / U +119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jedixson PaezBOS starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

DET at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andrew MorrisMIN starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

MIA at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +107 draftkings / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 fanatics / U -108 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -158 fanduel / U +130 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -139 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

OAK at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHW at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Ronel BlancoHOU starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BAL at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +105 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +120 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYY at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%under
O 6.550%under
O 7.536%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

PHI at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +108 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +133 betrivers / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

STL at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -155 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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