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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-26 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
TBR at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 fanduel / U -120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 betmgm / U +132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHC at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 bovada / U +117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betrivers / U -159 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

CIN at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 fanduel / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CLE at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 1 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -138 draftkings / U +112 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%under
O 2.594%under
O 3.585%under
O 4.573%under
O 5.558%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -135 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PHI at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -132 fanduel / U +135 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.567%over
O 7.554%over
O 8.540%over
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +136 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PIT at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -145 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy VásquezSDP starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 draftkings / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BOS at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

COL at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner GordonCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Matt WaldronWSN starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

HOU at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -159 betrivers / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 fanduel / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%over
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -111 fanduel / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Spencer MilesTOR starter / home
Projected K2.7Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%under
O 2.549%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

MIL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betrivers / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -180 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

LAD at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +111 draftkings / U -135 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanduel / U -156 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TEX at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -153 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BAL at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIN at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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