AUG at B0L

Model sees DET 58.6%, market implies 57.6% — tight agreement favoring Tigers. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust but he's an ace. Mo...

Market has LAD at 73.8% implied, model at 58.6% — a 15.2pp gap screaming market is right. Coors (PF 1.47) with Sheehan's 10.80 ERA in 3.1 IP is a r...

Market and model converge on PIT ~58%. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is near-zero information; 67.5 ERA is a blowup inning, not a true talent signal. Rasmu...

Brandon Woodruff shows null season ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—probable data pipeline issue masking true performance. Alcantara's 0.00...

Both starters showing 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP signals extreme small-sample noise. ATL's 6.6 RPG vs PHI's 3.6 RPG is decisive offensive comparison. Model...

Baltimore's Kremer has no resolved stats (fallback), which creates structural uncertainty the model cannot properly price. Williams' 5.4 ERA in onl...

Bradley's 4.1 IP across 10 starts signals opener usage, not a true starter. Abbott's 6.0 IP over 10 starts is similarly sparse. Model total of 9.24...

Market favors HOU at 56.3% vs model's STL 53.1%—an 8.8pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. Daikin Park's 0.81 run factor is extreme suppression....

Model picks TEX at 52% but market has SEA at 55% implied. Kirby's 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 6.0 IP are elite early indicators; Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA i...