TBR at HOU

Model has HOU 62% despite TBR's superior record (50-33 vs 43-46) and offense (5.7 RPG, .802 OPS vs 4.4 RPG, .695 OPS). Market sees coin flip at -10...

Model has ARI at 62% despite MIL's superior record (53-31 vs 43-43) and offensive metrics (.972 OPS vs .564). Market correctly favors MIL at 58.5%....

Market has STL +115 (46% implied) vs model's 42% for CHC. Peterson's 5.86 ERA in 73.7 IP is concerning; STL's .812 OPS despite 3.6 RPG suggests str...

Model has CIN 55.9% vs market 47.1% — an 8.8pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Both pitchers are mediocre (Singer 5.12 ERA, Rogers 4.99 E...

Model favors NYM 55.7% vs market 48.9%, a 6.8pp gap on a coin-flip line. ATL's 50-34 record vs NYM's 36-51 suggests model overweights recent noise....

Model picks OAK at 53.2%, market has them at 53.1% — essentially dead even. Phillips (3.02 ERA, 65.7 IP) is significantly better than Perkins (6.00...