ARI at ATL

Model's 65.6% on ATL is nearly 11 points above the market's 54.8% implied, and the justification is thin: E-Rodriguez carries a 2.70 ERA and 1.23 W...

Model (61.1%) and market (60.3%) agree on SFG, and the pitching gap supports it: Webb at 3.59 ERA/1.08 WHIP over 133 IP versus Lorenzen at 6.83 ERA...

Model (58.2%) and market (61.6% implied) both favor NYY, so the side is uncontroversial despite Toronto's better OPS (.786 vs .692). The 9.03 model...

Model (56.8%) and market (56.6%) agree on Detroit, so no comparison dispute. Melton's 1.46 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 80 IP is a substantial sample and...

Model (56.8%) and market (56.2% implied) agree on the Mets, so there's no comparison to exploit — a lean at best. Manaea's 4.13 ERA and 1.32 WHIP a...

Model has KCR at 55% while the market implies 58.6% for LAA — a ~14-point gap I can't justify. Detmers' 10.4 K/9 and 1.10 WHIP outclass Dobnak's 4....

Model favors BAL at 53.3% while market implies 57.8% home — an 11-point gap, and it is picking the team with the worse record (59-63 vs 74-47) and...

Model (53.3% MIL) and market (-118, ~53%) agree, so no comparison dispute on the side; Misiorowski's 1.76 ERA, 13.8 K/9 and 0.74 WHIP is the cleane...

Model has OAK at 52.9% versus a market implying 45%, and the supporting offensive inputs are internally inconsistent (OAK listed at 4.5 RPG with a...

Model favors PIT despite the worse record (60-64 vs 65-57), worse offense (4.3 RPG/.710 OPS vs 5.4/.736), and the far weaker starter — Jones at 5.0...