MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-16 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betrivers fanatics
MIA at PHI Jun 16, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -139 betrivers / U +120 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jesús Luzardo PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +104 fanduel / U -121 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
KCR at WSN Jun 16, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -157 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 fanduel / U -139 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TOR at BOS Jun 16, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 7.0 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 bovada / U +106 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 81% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% under
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 18% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 fanatics / U -144 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at NYY Jun 16, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 bovada / U -117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -104 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
NYM at CIN Jun 16, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKodai Senga NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 bovada / U -170 bovada 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 19%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 betrivers / U -118 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CLE at MIL Jun 16, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSlade Cecconi CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +109 draftkings / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 fanduel / U -155 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 24%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at STL Jun 16, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 bovada / U -132 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -137 draftkings / U +114 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 72%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIN at TEX Jun 16, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +104 betrivers / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 draftkings / U -148 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at CHC Jun 16, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Feltner COL starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -114 draftkings / U +100 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 27% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% over
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Edward Cabrera CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +116 fanduel / U -130 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at HOU Jun 16, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 draftkings / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -124 fanduel / U +110 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
BAL at SEA Jun 16, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 draftkings / U -125 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -136 draftkings / U +115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 34% over
O 8.5 22% over
O 9.5 14% over
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
PIT at OAK Jun 16, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Keller PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +131 draftkings / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jack Perkins OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -137 betrivers / U +116 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAA at ARI Jun 16, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 fanduel / U -148 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at LAD Jun 16, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -134 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Justin Wrobleski LAD starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +134 fanduel / U -164 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SFG at ATL Jun 17, 12:00 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAdrian Houser SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +120 draftkings / U -143 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 50% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 fanduel / U -108 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.