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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-15 / 20 starters
Market
Lines
MIA at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 draftkings / U +106 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +135 bovada / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

KCR at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mitch SpenceKCR starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 draftkings / U -145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYM at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tobias MyersNYM starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%under
O 2.549%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SDP at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.555%under
O 2.529%under
O 3.512%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -145 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

MIN at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mike ParedesMIN starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -162 fanduel / U +132 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

COL at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -157 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

DET at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Drew AndersonDET starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kai-Wei TengHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

PIT at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanduel / U +120 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAA at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -142 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ryne NelsonARI starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TBR at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Eric LauerLAD starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.