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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-14 / 28 starters
Market
Lines
MIA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max MeyerMIA starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -112 draftkings / U -105 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanduel / U +121 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

SEA at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -152 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

PJ PoulinWSN starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%under
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

SDP at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanatics / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 draftkings / U -130 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYY at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -121 betrivers / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Patrick CorbinTOR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +114 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce ElderATL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +119 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

ARI at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 draftkings / U +117 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

STL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 draftkings / U -118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -150 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

PHI at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +122 fanduel / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%under
O 4.583%under
O 5.571%under
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 betmgm / U +118 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%under
O 4.581%under
O 5.569%under
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

HOU at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Stephen KolekKCR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +116 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAD at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Bryan HudsonCHW starter / home
Projected K1.9Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.555%under
O 2.528%under
O 3.512%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

COL at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 bovada / U -164 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betmgm / U +112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHC at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan RolisonCHC starter / away
Projected K1.7Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.549%under
O 2.523%under
O 3.59%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

TBR at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey LeguminaTBR starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanatics / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

TEX at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 draftkings / U +120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -129 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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