MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-13 / 30 starters
Lines
STL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 draftkings / U -114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +114 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

NYY at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 fanduel / U -152 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SEA at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 fanduel / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Lake BacharMIA starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -118 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SDP at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 draftkings / U +100 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trey GibsonBAL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +128 draftkings / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

ATL at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +108 fanduel2 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

DET at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tarik SkubalDET starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 betrivers / U -113 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanduel / U +122 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ARI at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +120 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 fanatics / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

LAD at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -145 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 draftkings / U +110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TEX at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -145 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 draftkings / U -105 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

PHI at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +125 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +134 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

HOU at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Mike BurrowsHOU starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanduel / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CHC at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ben BrownCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U -103 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanduel / U -114 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

COL at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joey EstesOAK starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 draftkings / U -130 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TBR at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -165 bovada / U +135 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 4.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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