MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-12 / 30 starters Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betrivers fanatics
MIA at PIT Jun 12, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 betmgm / U -120 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -134 betrivers / U +112 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SEA at WSN Jun 12, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Miller SEA starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -126 draftkings / U +108 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Zack Littell WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +128 draftkings / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
SDP at BAL Jun 12, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Canning SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -115 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane Baz BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +138 fanduel / U -152 betrivers 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
DET at CLE Jun 12, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Flaherty DET starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +135 bovada / U -160 betmgm 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +132 fanduel / U -152 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
TEX at BOS Jun 12, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Leiter TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +135 bovada / U -140 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +136 fanduel / U -150 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 27%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
ATL at NYM Jun 12, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSpencer Strider ATL starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 betrivers / U +110 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 betmgm / U +104 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
ARI at CIN Jun 12, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 draftkings / U -145 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 draftkings / U -105 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYY at TOR Jun 12, 5:37 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Weathers NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +145 bovada / U -150 fanatics 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Trey Yesavage TOR starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betmgm / U -145 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% under
O 4.5 71% under
O 5.5 55% under
O 6.5 40% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at MIL Jun 12, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Banks PHI starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 53% under
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / home
Projected K 8.7 Actual 15 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O +100 betrivers / U -110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 8.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 97% over
O 4.5 92% over
O 5.5 85% over
O 6.5 75% over
O 7.5 63% over
O 8.5 50% over
O 9.5 38% over
O 10.5 27% over
O 11.5 19% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 15 strikeouts.
LAD at CHW Jun 12, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRoki Sasaki LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 betmgm / U -110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +116 fanduel / U -129 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
STL at MIN Jun 12, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Leahy STL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 bovada / U +135 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +130 fanduel / U -160 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 6.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
HOU at KCR Jun 12, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTatsuya Imai HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 fanatics / U -124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Luinder Avila KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 fanduel / U +100 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
TBR at LAA Jun 12, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane McClanahan TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -127 betrivers / U +106 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Sam Aldegheri LAA starter / home
Projected K 3.0 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -160 fanatics / U +133 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 2.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% over
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
COL at OAK Jun 12, 8:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Sullivan COL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -102 fanduel / U -118 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at SFG Jun 12, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJavier Assad CHC starter / away
Projected K 2.7 Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -165 betmgm / U +132 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 2.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 74% over
O 2.5 49% over
O 3.5 28% over
O 4.5 14% over
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Landen Roupp SFG starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -145 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.