MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-24 / 32 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
TEX at MIA Jun 24, 10:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.1 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -122 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 fanduel / U +106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CHC at NYM Jun 24, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShota Imanaga CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betmgm / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 52%
O 5.5 35%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kodai Senga NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Did not start / void
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 fanduel / U +109 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 81%
O 3.5 63%
O 4.5 45%
O 5.5 29%
O 6.5 16%
O 7.5 9%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
CLE at CHW Jun 24, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 fanatics / U +145 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Erick Fedde CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -134 fanduel / U +128 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 41% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BOS at COL Jun 24, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 draftkings / U +121 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% over
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Kyle Freeland COL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +140 bovada / U -150 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
BAL at LAA Jun 24, 2:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrey Gibson BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -103 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
José Soriano LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 75% under
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
KCR at TBR Jun 24, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 bovada / U -124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 fanatics / U +128 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SEA at PIT Jun 24, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 fanatics / U -124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -152 fanduel / U +124 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% over
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
NYY at DET Jun 24, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Weathers NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 bovada / U +102 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal DET starter / home
Projected K 6.6 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 fanatics / U +125 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% over
O 6.5 49% over
O 7.5 35% over
O 8.5 23% over
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
PHI at WSN Jun 24, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAaron Nola PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Carson Palmquist WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.3 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
HOU at TOR Jun 24, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMike Burrows HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Trey Yesavage TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 fanduel / U -105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHC at NYM Jun 24, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShota Imanaga CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -107 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean Manaea NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at CIN Jun 24, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -150 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 27%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Rhett Lowder CIN starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
LAD at MIN Jun 24, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShohei Ohtani LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +115 bovada / U -129 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -144 fanduel / U +125 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
ARI at STL Jun 24, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Bratt ARI starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.0 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 57% over
O 3.5 35% under
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 fanatics / U -142 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ATL at SDP Jun 24, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
JP Sears SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
OAK at SFG Jun 24, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 fanduel / U -136 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 25% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% over
O 8.5 3% over
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betmgm / U -134 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.