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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-23 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
HOU at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 draftkings / U -122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

KCR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -145 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SEA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -110 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TEX at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%under
O 2.550%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -146 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYY at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Casey MizeDET starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

PHI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -150 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

PJ PoulinWSN starter / home
Projected K1.6Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.549%under
O 2.523%under
O 3.59%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CHC at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Edward CabreraCHC starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +111 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kodai SengaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 fanduel / U +102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 betrivers / U +100 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -156 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

LAD at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betrivers / U -122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kendry RojasMIN starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -141 betrivers / U +107 betrivers1 book at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.528%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CLE at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ARI at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 draftkings / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BOS at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Sean SullivanCOL starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

BAL at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 bovada / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 fanduel / U -139 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

ATL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
JR RitchieATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / home
Projected K1.6Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.546%over
O 2.521%under
O 3.58%under
O 4.52%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

OAK at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Aaron CivaleOAK starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 betmgm / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySFG starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -155 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.516%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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