MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-22 / 24 starters
Market
Lines
NYY at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 draftkings / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

KCR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -136 draftkings / U +120 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TEX at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler AlexanderTEX starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%under
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -145 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PHI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +108 fanduel / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

HOU at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -142 draftkings / U +125 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.578%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%over
O 8.540%under
O 9.528%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

MIL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon WoodruffMIL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U -118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

LAD at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will KleinLAD starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +111 draftkings / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CLE at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -150 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

ARI at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betrivers / U -118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BOS at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +113 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -106 betrivers / U -105 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BAL at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -110 bovada / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Sam AldegheriLAA starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -159 betrivers / U +132 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -130 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg