MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-22 / 24 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
NYY at DET Jun 22, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGerrit Cole NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 24%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Framber Valdez DET starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -142 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
KCR at TBR Jun 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -125 betmgm / U +109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -136 draftkings / U +120 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TEX at MIA Jun 22, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Alexander TEX starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 1 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% under
O 2.5 53% under
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -145 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at WSN Jun 22, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTim Mayza PHI starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 62% over
O 2.5 35% under
O 3.5 16% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +108 fanduel / U -126 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
HOU at TOR Jun 22, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Brown HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Dylan Cease TOR starter / home
Projected K 7.9 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -142 draftkings / U +125 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 88% over
O 5.5 78% over
O 6.5 66% over
O 7.5 53% over
O 8.5 40% under
O 9.5 28% under
O 10.5 19% under
O 11.5 12% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
MIL at CIN Jun 22, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Woodruff MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betrivers / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 24%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 7% over
O 8.5 3% over
O 9.5 1% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Brady Singer CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betonlineag / U -118 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAD at MIN Jun 22, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Klein LAD starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 2 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 62% over
O 2.5 36% under
O 3.5 17% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Zebby Matthews MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +111 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CLE at CHW Jun 22, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -150 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 42% over
O 7.5 28% over
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -134 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 8% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
ARI at STL Jun 22, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMerrill Kelly ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -103 betrivers / U -118 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -132 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BOS at COL Jun 22, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJake Bennett BOS starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 9 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +113 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% over
O 8.5 2% over
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Ryan Feltner COL starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -106 betrivers / U -105 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BAL at LAA Jun 22, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -110 bovada / U -110 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Sam Aldegheri LAA starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -159 betrivers / U +132 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ATL at SDP Jun 22, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrant Holmes ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -130 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Michael King SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.