MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-21 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CIN at NYY Jun 21, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 6.3 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -135 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 60% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Elmer RodrÃguez NYY starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -140 fanduel / U +118 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at ATL Jun 21, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 draftkings / U -157 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bryce Elder ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betrivers / U -128 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
WSN at TBR Jun 21, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Alvarez WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -154 draftkings / U +121 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nick Martinez TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +118 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SFG at MIA Jun 21, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Webb SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -115 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ryan Gusto MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -134 fanduel / U +126 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 17% over
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHW at DET Jun 21, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -149 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% under
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Keider Montero DET starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -113 betrivers / U +104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at KCR Jun 21, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May STL starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betmgm / U -165 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Stephen Kolek KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 betmgm / U -112 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
CLE at HOU Jun 21, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSlade Cecconi CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -175 betonlineag / U +135 bovada 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Kai-Wei Teng HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -104 betrivers / U +102 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SDP at TEX Jun 21, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWandy Peralta SDP starter / away
Projected K 2.4 Actual 0 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 68% under
O 2.5 42% under
O 3.5 21% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 4% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 fanatics / U +112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% over
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
PIT at COL Jun 21, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJared Jones PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +134 betonlineag / U -162 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Michael Lorenzen COL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -142 fanduel / U +120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 64%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIN at ARI Jun 21, 1:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMike Paredes MIN starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +117 draftkings 2 books at this line
Model over 2.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% under
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Jose Cabrera ARI starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.4 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
LAA at OAK Jun 21, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -115 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jack Perkins OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -112 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
BOS at SEA Jun 21, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPayton Tolle BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.5 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -135 betmgm / U +117 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% over
O 7.5 34% over
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
BAL at LAD Jun 21, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -140 fanatics / U +114 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Emmet Sheehan LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -105 fanduel / U -104 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% under
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYM at PHI Jun 21, 5:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Peterson NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 betmgm / U +106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -108 betrivers / U -104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% over
O 6.5 35% over
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.