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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-18 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
NYY at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 fanduel / U +120 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanatics / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

TOR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 fanatics / U -141 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

DET at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +104 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIA at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cade GibsonMIA starter / away
Projected K1.8Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.553%under
O 2.527%under
O 3.511%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 bovada / U -130 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SFG at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 bovada / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -112 draftkings / U -105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

STL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SDP at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U +100 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

ARI at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +110 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

SEA at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 draftkings / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -155 draftkings / U +135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

OAK at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%under
O 2.546%under
O 3.525%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

WSN at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 bovada / U +102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CHW at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryan HudsonCHW starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.557%under
O 2.530%under
O 3.513%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAA at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
George KlassenLAA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betrivers / U -154 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betonlineag / U -111 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAD at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eric LauerLAD starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +119 draftkings / U -143 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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