MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-24 / 24 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
STL at PIT Sep 24, 10:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Leahy STL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +132 fanduel / U -165 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -110 betmgm / U +108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CHW at KCR Sep 24, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Sandlin CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +103 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% over
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Randy Dobnak KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -104 fanduel / U -119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIA at CHC Sep 24, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -102 fanduel / U -125 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYM at TEX Sep 24, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Thornton NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -153 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betmgm / U -140 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ARI at COL Sep 24, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 bovada / U +106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Tanner Gordon COL starter / home
Projected K 3.4 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -106 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% under
O 2.5 64% under
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIL at PHI Sep 24, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Andrew Painter PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +117 betonlineag / U -134 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CLE at BOS Sep 24, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDaniel Espino CLE starter / away
Projected K 2.3 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 66% over
O 2.5 40% under
O 3.5 20% under
O 4.5 9% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 bovada / U -140 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TBR at NYY Sep 24, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastIan Seymour TBR starter / away
Projected K 6.1 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -139 betonlineag / U +120 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 85% under
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 56% under
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +128 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CIN at ATL Sep 24, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Singer CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -118 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tyler Mahle ATL starter / home
Projected K 6.6 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 betmgm / U +125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% under
O 5.5 63% under
O 6.5 48% under
O 7.5 34% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at SEA Sep 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 fanduel / U +135 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Bryan Woo SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
HOU at OAK Sep 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPeter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 draftkings / U -135 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Mason Barnett OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -107 draftkings / U -110 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% over
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
SDP at LAD Sep 24, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Pivetta SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tyler Glasnow LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.8 Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 79% over
O 5.5 66% over
O 6.5 51% over
O 7.5 37% over
O 8.5 25% over
O 9.5 16% over
O 10.5 10% over
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.