MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-25 / 33 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
CHC at BOS Sep 25, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastClay Holmes CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -132 fanduel / U +116 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Alec Gamboa BOS starter / home
Projected K 1.9 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 56% under
O 2.5 29% under
O 3.5 13% under
O 4.5 5% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
BAL at NYY Sep 25, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% under
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brendan Beck NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 8 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
BAL at NYY Sep 25, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Young BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at BOS Sep 25, 3:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavid Peterson CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 fanduel / U +120 fanduel 1 book at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brayan Bello BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +134 fanduel / U -161 betonlineag 2 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TBR at PHI Sep 25, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFreddy Peralta TBR starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 bovada / U -129 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
PIT at DET Sep 25, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBubba Chandler PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 betmgm / U +105 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jackson Jobe DET starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -145 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
NYM at WSN Sep 25, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJefry Yan NYM starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 61% under
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 fanduel / U +110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CIN at TOR Sep 25, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Lodolo CIN starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
José Soriano TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -132 fanduel / U +105 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% under
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
ATL at MIA Sep 25, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRay Kerr ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -134 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
STL at MIL Sep 25, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 draftkings / U -104 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -124 draftkings / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
CLE at KCR Sep 25, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 7.3 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -122 fanduel / U -103 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 92% over
O 4.5 84% under
O 5.5 72% under
O 6.5 58% under
O 7.5 44% under
O 8.5 31% under
O 9.5 21% under
O 10.5 13% under
O 11.5 8% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 fanduel / U -157 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
COL at CHW Sep 25, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTomoyuki Sugano COL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -114 betonlineag / U -108 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -138 fanduel / U +120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TEX at MIN Sep 25, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +105 betmgm / U -118 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +126 fanduel / U -150 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
ARI at SDP Sep 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Pfaadt ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -127 betonlineag / U +107 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 14% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Casey Mize SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% under
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
HOU at OAK Sep 25, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Brown HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 bovada / U +102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 53% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 betonlineag / U -125 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAA at SEA Sep 25, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReid Detmers LAA starter / away
Projected K 6.7 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +102 draftkings / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% over
O 6.5 49% over
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +123 draftkings / U -141 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% over
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAD at SFG Sep 25, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTarik Skubal LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +111 draftkings / U -132 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 20%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 11% over
O 9.5 6% over
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Yunior Marte SFG starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 59% over
O 3.5 38% over
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.