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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-26 / 25 starters
Market
Lines
NYM at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jonah TongNYM starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyWSN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -166 fanduel2 books at this line
Model over 3.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

PIT at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kirby YatesPIT starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Justin VerlanderDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +110 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CIN at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +128 betonlineag / U -158 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -121 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.578%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAD at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betonlineag / U +125 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TEX at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +141 draftkings / U -140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ATL at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brent SuterATL starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.560%over
O 2.534%over
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Jack RalstonMIA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

STL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K2.9Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -135 betonlineag / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 2.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.554%over
O 3.532%over
O 4.517%over
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CLE at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

COL at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jose QuintanaCOL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +103 draftkings / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

TBR at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +115 bovada / U -133 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

ARI at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAA at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -141 draftkings / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

HOU at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 draftkings / U +112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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