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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-27 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
NYM at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -109 draftkings / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

DJ HerzWSN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BAL at NYY / Cancelled
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 draftkings / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / home
Projected K4.3
Best price at 5.55.5O +137 betonlineag / U -152 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.57%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TBR at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +112 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 draftkings / U -150 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAD at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jack DreyerLAD starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%over
O 2.538%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Carson SeymourSFG starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CHC at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -170 fanatics1 book at this line
Model over 4.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tanner HouckBOS starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

HOU at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +126 draftkings / U -159 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 2.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Seth JohnsonOAK starter / home
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.575%over
O 2.552%under
O 3.530%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

CIN at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon WilliamsonCIN starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 betonlineag / U -172 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -131 draftkings / U +115 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

LAA at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Yusei KikuchiLAA starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -144 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +113 draftkings / U -125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.560%over
O 7.547%over
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

ARI at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 fanatics / U -135 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Randy VásquezSDP starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +118 betonlineag / U -152 mybookieag2 books at this line
Model over 2.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%over
O 2.543%under
O 3.523%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TEX at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 betonlineag / U +128 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +113 draftkings / U +115 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betonlineag / U -130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%under
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ATL at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
JR RitchieATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

CLE at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betonlineag / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.573%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +109 draftkings / U -125 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

PIT at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 draftkings / U +112 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

River RyanDET starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -106 betonlineag / U -119 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 2.577%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

COL at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 draftkings / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betonlineag / U -111 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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