Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback...

May 22, 6:00 PM MDTNHL / nhl

VGKVegas Golden Knights

COLColorado Avalanche

MoneylineCOL moneyline

Pick Probability65%

Market Odds-176

finalEV held

MLBMoneylineMay 22, 5:05 PM MDT

Open

TBRTampa Bay Rays+124

NYYNew York Yankees-147

Pick Probability60%NYY moneyline

TBR / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense...

MLBMoneylineMay 22, 5:40 PM MDT

Open

LADLos Angeles Dodgers-108

MILMilwaukee Brewers-111

Pick Probability60%MIL moneyline

MIL / pass confidence / Rank 12

Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6...

MLBMoneylineMay 22, 12:20 PM MDT

Open

HOUHouston Astros+123

CHCChicago Cubs-147

Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline

HOUSpencer Arrighetti

CHC / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are...

MLBMoneylineMay 22, 5:07 PM MDT

Open

PITPittsburgh Pirates+139

TORToronto Blue Jays-164

Pick Probability58%TOR moneyline