Ranked picks with source labels.

Market at 65.5% implied vs model 58.1% shows sharp divergence favoring ATL. Chris Sale's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP (tiny sample) plus TOR fallback pitcher...

Model has LAD at 58.6%, market implies 56.3% — reasonable convergence. ARI offense is weak (.564 OPS, 4.3 RPG) vs LAD (.743 OPS, 5.9 RPG). Nelson's...

Ginn's 0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP per start is noise, not signal. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP per start suggests recent struggles or limited sample. Model...

Model has HOU 58% but market is coin flip (HOU -108). PIT is 33-29 vs HOU 28-35; model picks the worse team. Daikin park factor 0.81 is extreme pit...

Model likes BOS at 57.5%, market at 52.1% — modest comparison. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Bello lack...