Ranked picks with source labels.

Snell (2.42 ERA, 12.46 K/9, 1.08 WHIP) against Kent (5.59 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 4 starts) is a clear starter comparison, and the market's 73.7% implied...

Market (66.2%) is slightly higher on SEA than the model (62.5%); Gilbert's 3.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 160.1 IP against Morris (9.82 ERA, 2.11 WHIP...

Model has BAL at 54.2% versus market 48.5%, but the underlying inputs favor Boston: better record (76-65 vs 69-72), better OPS (.736 vs .662), and...

Model takes COL despite a 54-86 record, 3.8 RPG and .531 OPS against a STL club at .812 OPS and 5.2 RPG - a clear offense/defense mismatch. Feltner...

Model takes DET despite a 64-75 record, 3.0 RPG and .582 OPS against a Cleveland club at 4.6 RPG; that is the mismatch flag firing. Williams' 11.98...

Model has LAA at 50.5% while the market implies 63% for Pittsburgh, and it is siding with the team holding both the worse record (53-87 vs 69-72) a...

Model takes DET at 50.5% despite the Tigers' 64-75 record, 3.0 RPG and .582 OPS — the mismatch flag is doing real work here. Griffin (3.21 ERA, 1.1...

Model has CIN at 50.2% versus market's 41%, but every underlying input favors Milwaukee: 87-54 record, 5.5 RPG and .972 OPS against Cincinnati's .6...

Model has MIA at 50.2% versus market-implied 40.9%, a 9-point gap with no clear structural justification; Chicago is 79-62 and Imanaga's 1.14 WHIP...

Model has SDP at 50.2% vs market 45.7%, backing the worse team on both record (73-67 vs 80-60) and offense (3.8 RPG, .547 OPS vs 5.7, .692). Fried'...