Ranked picks with source labels.

Yamamoto (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) against a .629 OPS Cincinnati lineup is the dominant feature here; Lowder's 5.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP keep LAD live for...

Model's 61.4% on TOR sits modestly above the market's 56.2%, a defensible gap rather than an outlier. Fisher (3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has the comparis...

Soroka's 3.53 ERA/1.16 WHIP over Junk's 4.54/1.32 plus home field justifies ARI, but Miami's offense is clearly better (5.8 RPG, .774 OPS vs 4.5 an...

Model (57.8%) and market (55.0%) essentially agree on the Mets, so this is a defensible side without a real comparison. Baltimore's 3.4 RPG and .66...

STL is the better side: 75-76 vs 62-89, 5.2 RPG, and Pallante's 3.45 ERA over 146 IP beats Tidwell's 4.82 in 46.7 IP. Market at -157 (59.9%) is abo...

Model has PIT at 53% against a market implying 31% — a 22-point gap with no support. MIL is 93-57 with 7.4 RPG and .972 OPS against PIT's 3.2 RPG,...

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.90 ERA over 108.7 IP belongs to someone else), so the model's 51.7% on TEX rests on shaky ground versus...

Model's 53% on Washington is 19 points above the market's 34% implied, and the pitching gap doesn't support it: Sanchez has 187.1 IP at 2.79 ERA wi...

Market implies 57.6% home while model has CHW at 53.4% — an 11-point gap I side against. Griffin's 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 162.7 IP comparison...

Model's 50.9% on LAA is ~12 points above the market's 38.9% implied, and it's picking the worse team on both record (57-93 vs 70-81) and scoring (3...