NYM at MIL

Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 13.54 K/9 across 111 IP is elite. Model at 64.3% matches Pinnacle's 65.4% implied—no comparison. Peralta's 4.66 ERA and...

Model has TOR 60.8%, market implies 58.5%—tight alignment. Both starters sub-2.65 ERA over 10 GS each, ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market tot...

Bratt has 6.0 IP across 2 starts (3 IP/start avg) — this is effectively a bullpen game. Springs' 6.08 ERA in 97.7 IP is established poor form, not...

Model favors DET by 8 points over market's coin-flip line, triggering disagreement flag. CHC's superior offense (5.3 RPG vs 4.5, .694 OPS vs .582)...

Model and market diverge slightly: model has STL at 54.9%, market implies 49.1% (virtual coin flip). Both pitchers solid (Soriano 3.49 ERA, Leahy 3...

Model likes PIT at 54.3%, market has it near 50/50 (NYY -112). PIT's 6.9 RPG offensive surge is real (100 GP sample), while NYY sits at 4.0 RPG. As...

Model has TEX 54% vs market's 61% — a 7pp gap favoring CHW value. deGrom's 3.49 ERA in 100.7 IP is elite but market overprices TEX at home. Fedde's...

Model has SDP 51.6% but market implies ATL 57.4% — a 5.8pp gap. Model flags offense_defense_mismatch yet picks the worse team (SDP: 49-50, .547 OPS...