MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-18 / 14 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-18
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+165
NYYNew York Yankees-200
Pick Probability64%NYY moneyline
TORPatrick Corbin
NYYRyan Weathers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (64.1%) and market (64.1%) perfectly aligned on NYY moneyline. Missing pitcher stats means total confidence is low despite park factor 0.93 s...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-142
WSNWashington Nationals+120
Pick Probability63%WSN moneyline
NYMChristian Scott
WSNJake Irvin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
NYM / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has WSN at 62.9% but market implies only 44.2% — an 18.7pp gap flags structural misread. Christian Scott's null stats suggest data_quality='f...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+118
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-138
Pick Probability60%ARI moneyline
SFGRobbie Ray
ARIZac Gallen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model likes ARI at 60.2% vs market's 56.4%, but both pitchers show tiny IP samples (Gallen 4.0 IP, Ray 5.1 IP) making season ERA/WHIP unreliable. G...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-152
SDPSan Diego Padres+129
Pick Probability59%LAD moneyline
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
SDPMichael King
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD at 58.6%, market at 56.6% — essentially aligned. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, but Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA over...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-106
MIAMiami Marlins-110
Pick Probability58%MIA moneyline
ATLJR Ritchie
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
MIA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-18
Rank#1
CLE at DETCleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickCLEstrong confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 58%Model pick probability

Model picks DET at 57.5% but CLE is the superior team (26-22 vs 20-27, 5.6 RPG vs 2.3 RPG, .600 OPS vs .582 OPS). Cecconi's 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP per start is atrocious...

Rank#2
NYM at WSNNew York Mets at Washington Nationals
AI Analyst PickNYMstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelWSN / 63%Model pick probability

Model has WSN at 62.9% but market implies only 44.2% — an 18.7pp gap flags structural misread. Christian Scott's null stats suggest data_quality='full' may be misleadi...

Rank#3
LAD at SDPLos Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 59%Model pick probability

Model has LAD at 58.6%, market at 56.6% — essentially aligned. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, but Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA over 6.0 IP per start (60...

Rank#4
TOR at NYYToronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickNYYlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYY / 64%Model pick probability

Model (64.1%) and market (64.1%) perfectly aligned on NYY moneyline. Missing pitcher stats means total confidence is low despite park factor 0.93 suggesting under. Mod...

Rank#5
BAL at TBRBaltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelBAL / 55%Model pick probability

Model picks BAL at 55% but market has TBR -149 (59% implied). TBR is 30-15 vs BAL 21-26; BAL offense is anemic at 3.4 RPG/.662 OPS. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is meani...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

14 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+165
NYYNew York Yankees-200
Pick Probability64%NYY moneyline
TORPatrick Corbin
NYYRyan Weathers
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (64.1%) and market (64.1%) perfectly aligned on NYY moneyline. Missing pitcher stats means total confidence is low despite park factor 0.93 s...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-142
WSNWashington Nationals+120
Pick Probability63%WSN moneyline
NYMChristian Scott
WSNJake Irvin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
NYM / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has WSN at 62.9% but market implies only 44.2% — an 18.7pp gap flags structural misread. Christian Scott's null stats suggest data_quality='f...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+118
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-138
Pick Probability60%ARI moneyline
SFGRobbie Ray
ARIZac Gallen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
ARI / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model likes ARI at 60.2% vs market's 56.4%, but both pitchers show tiny IP samples (Gallen 4.0 IP, Ray 5.1 IP) making season ERA/WHIP unreliable. G...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-152
SDPSan Diego Padres+129
Pick Probability59%LAD moneyline
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
SDPMichael King
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD at 58.6%, market at 56.6% — essentially aligned. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, but Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA over...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-106
MIAMiami Marlins-110
Pick Probability58%MIA moneyline
ATLJR Ritchie
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
MIA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+127
DETDetroit Tigers-148
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
CLESlade Cecconi
DETFramber Valdez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CLE / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks DET at 57.5% but CLE is the superior team (26-22 vs 20-27, 5.6 RPG vs 2.3 RPG, .600 OPS vs .582 OPS). Cecconi's 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP per...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-112
KCRKansas City Royals-105
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
BOSSonny Gray
KCRSeth Lugo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers+138
CHCChicago Cubs-165
Pick Probability58%CHC moneyline
MILBrandon Sproat
CHCShota Imanaga
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
CHC / pass confidence / Rank 8

Pitcher stats are catastrophically broken: Imanaga shows 7.2 ERA in 5.0 IP (10 starts impossible), Sproat 21.0 ERA in 3.0 IP. Data quality marked '...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+146
SEASeattle Mariners-175
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
CHWNoah Schultz
SEABryan Woo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
SEA / pass confidence / Rank 6

Model 57.5% vs market 60.3% on SEA is modest disagreement. Schultz missing all rate stats is a data gap. T-Mobile 0.855 park factor plus extreme_pa...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics-126
LAALos Angeles Angels+108
Pick Probability56%OAK moneyline
OAKJ.T. Ginn
LAAWalbert Ureña
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.9
Model pick
OAK moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+131
TBRTampa Bay Rays-153
Pick Probability55%BAL moneyline
BALTrevor Rogers
TBRShane McClanahan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks BAL at 55% but market has TBR -149 (59% implied). TBR is 30-15 vs BAL 21-26; BAL offense is anemic at 3.4 RPG/.662 OPS. Rogers' 0.00 ER...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-150
COLColorado Rockies+128
Pick Probability55%TEX moneyline
TEXMacKenzie Gore
COLJose Quintana
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+108
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-125
Pick Probability54%PHI moneyline
CINNick Lodolo
PHIAndrew Painter
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros-102
MINMinnesota Twins-115
Pick Probability54%MIN moneyline
HOUTatsuya Imai
MINKendry Rojas
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
MIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

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