MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-23 / 14 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-23
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+125
CHCChicago Cubs-149
Pick Probability64%CHC moneyline
HOUKai-Wei Teng
CHCColin Rea
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
CHC / pass confidence / Rank 6

Colin Rea's missing stats (0 IP recorded across 10 starts) make this unpickable on side. Model total of 8.82 vs market 7.5 is a 1.32-run gap; HOU's...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+106
BOSBoston Red Sox-125
Pick Probability59%MIN moneyline
MINTaj Bradley
BOSJovani Morán
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
MIN / pass confidence / Rank 7

Morán has 2.0 IP in 2 starts this season—effectively an opener or bullpen day. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is a 2-start mirage. Model weighs pitc...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-107
CINCincinnati Reds-110
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
STLAndre Pallante
CINChris Paddack
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CIN / pass confidence / Rank 11

STL's 0.812 OPS vs CIN's 0.629 OPS is a massive gap, yet STL scores only 3.5 RPG. Model leans CIN at 60.2% vs market 53.3%—7pp comparison seems unj...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+160
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-190
Pick Probability58%ARI moneyline
COLMichael Lorenzen
ARIZac Gallen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-103
MIAMiami Marlins-115
Pick Probability58%MIA moneyline
NYMFreddy Peralta
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
MIA / pass confidence / Rank 8

Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Both pitchers have tiny 5.0 IP samples (10 starts each, ~0.5 IP/start i...

Published Slate Notes

MLB Daily Picks — May 23, 2026

Daily Picks — May 23, 2026 1 higher-confidence spot · 5 underdog leans · 6 total notes High-Confidence moneyline notes HOU @ CHC — May 23, 2026 [HIGH CONFIDENCE · TOTAL] Our model: CHC -1.5 | Total 8.8 Vegas: CHC -1.5 | Total 7.5 Confidence: 64.1% (picks CHC) total notes: OVER 7.5 (model 8.82, over...

Games reviewed cover the published slate notes. Ranked analyst picks are the matchups with public AI Analyst rankings, so the counts can differ.

9 games reviewed5 ranked analyst picks1 higher-confidence spot5 underdog leans
  • Top confidence matchupHOU @ CHC
View ranked picks

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-23
Rank#1
PIT at TORPittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickPITstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTOR / 54%Model pick probability

Model has TOR 53.5%, market implies PIT 58.5% — a 12pp gap flags structural miss. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is noise (67.5 ERA meaningless), but market knows he's elite. T...

Rank#2
SEA at KCRSeattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelKCR / 51%Model pick probability

Model sees coin flip (50.6% KCR), market leans SEA at 55.2% implied. SEA offense much stronger (4.2 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.5/.518). Kirby's 1.50 ERA in limited IP is elite...

Rank#3
CLE at PHICleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickPHIlean confidence
Agrees with modelPHI / 51%Model pick probability

Market has PHI at 63.6% vs model's 50.6% — large gap. Wheeler's missing stats are suspicious but PHI is home in a pitcher's park (PF 1.15 helps hitters, not pitchers —...

Rank#4
CHW at SFGChicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Agrees with modelCHW / 52%Model pick probability

CHW favored by offensive gap (5.6 RPG vs 3.8, .729 OPS vs .388) but Hudson's 0.2 IP sample is microscopic. Market leans SFG at home despite Oracle's 0.906 park factor....

Rank#5
LAD at MILLos Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelMIL / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes MIL 53.6% vs market's 47.6% for LAD. LAD's 5.2 RPG offense is stronger than MIL's 4.7 RPG. Both pitchers lack season stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null), making thi...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

14 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+125
CHCChicago Cubs-149
Pick Probability64%CHC moneyline
HOUKai-Wei Teng
CHCColin Rea
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
CHC / pass confidence / Rank 6

Colin Rea's missing stats (0 IP recorded across 10 starts) make this unpickable on side. Model total of 8.82 vs market 7.5 is a 1.32-run gap; HOU's...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+106
BOSBoston Red Sox-125
Pick Probability59%MIN moneyline
MINTaj Bradley
BOSJovani Morán
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
MIN / pass confidence / Rank 7

Morán has 2.0 IP in 2 starts this season—effectively an opener or bullpen day. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is a 2-start mirage. Model weighs pitc...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-107
CINCincinnati Reds-110
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
STLAndre Pallante
CINChris Paddack
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CIN / pass confidence / Rank 11

STL's 0.812 OPS vs CIN's 0.629 OPS is a massive gap, yet STL scores only 3.5 RPG. Model leans CIN at 60.2% vs market 53.3%—7pp comparison seems unj...

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+160
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-190
Pick Probability58%ARI moneyline
COLMichael Lorenzen
ARIZac Gallen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-103
MIAMiami Marlins-115
Pick Probability58%MIA moneyline
NYMFreddy Peralta
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
MIA / pass confidence / Rank 8

Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Both pitchers have tiny 5.0 IP samples (10 starts each, ~0.5 IP/start i...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-110
CINCincinnati Reds-110
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
STLKyle Leahy
CINChase Petty
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
CIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-147
LAALos Angeles Angels+123
Pick Probability55%TEX moneyline
TEXNathan Eovaldi
LAAWalbert Ureña
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-147
TORToronto Blue Jays+123
Pick Probability54%TOR moneyline
PITPaul Skenes
TORPatrick Corbin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
PIT / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has TOR 53.5%, market implies PIT 58.5% — a 12pp gap flags structural miss. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is noise (67.5 ERA meaningless), but market...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+142
ATLAtlanta Braves-170
Pick Probability54%ATL moneyline
WSNJake Irvin
ATLGrant Holmes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-120
MILMilwaukee Brewers+100
Pick Probability54%MIL moneyline
LADRoki Sasaki
MILRobert Gasser
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes MIL 53.6% vs market's 47.6% for LAD. LAD's 5.2 RPG offense is stronger than MIL's 4.7 RPG. Both pitchers lack season stats (IP/ERA/K9 a...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics-128
SDPSan Diego Padres+109
Pick Probability53%SDP moneyline
OAKJ.T. Ginn
SDPLucas Giolito
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox-104
SFGSan Francisco Giants-112
Pick Probability52%CHW moneyline
CHWBryan Hudson
SFGAdrian Houser
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

CHW favored by offensive gap (5.6 RPG vs 3.8, .729 OPS vs .388) but Hudson's 0.2 IP sample is microscopic. Market leans SFG at home despite Oracle'...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+150
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-179
Pick Probability51%PHI moneyline
CLESlade Cecconi
PHIZack Wheeler
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market has PHI at 63.6% vs model's 50.6% — large gap. Wheeler's missing stats are suspicious but PHI is home in a pitcher's park (PF 1.15 helps hit...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-126
KCRKansas City Royals+108
Pick Probability51%KCR moneyline
SEAGeorge Kirby
KCRStephen Kolek
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model sees coin flip (50.6% KCR), market leans SEA at 55.2% implied. SEA offense much stronger (4.2 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.5/.518). Kirby's 1.50 ERA in...

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