MLB moneyline board.

Market (-130, ~55%) and model (53.5%) agree on Boston, and the starter gap supports it: Gray at 2.79 ERA / 1.16 WHIP over 138.7 IP versus Gusto at 4.37 / 1.34 in 57.7...

Model has NYM at 53.8% vs market's 40.8% implied — a 13-point gap with no supporting profile. Milwaukee is 81-51 with a .972 OPS and 5.5 RPG against a Mets club at 3.9...

CHW is the better side on merit: Burke's 3.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 146 IP top Gore's 4.26/1.23, and Chicago's 4.4 RPG and .729 OPS beat Texas's 3.9 and .698. But the...

Starter gap favors Oakland: Ginn at 3.60 ERA/1.23 WHIP versus Prielipp at 5.57/1.40, yet the market prices OAK as a +121 underdog on record alone. Minnesota's 3.9 RPG...

Model (54.4%) and market (52.4%) both tilt Detroit, driven by the pitching comparison: Melton's 1.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 90 IP against Peralta's 5.33 ERA and 1.46 W...

Model's 9.17-run total is 2.7 above the 6.5 market line, unjustifiable with T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and Luzardo at 3.23 ERA, 11.19 K/9. Clear under. On the side,...

Model's 9.03-run total is 1.5+ above the 7.5 market line despite Oracle Park at 0.906 PF and both clubs averaging 3.6 runs per game; that's a structural miss and I'll...

Model takes LAA at 51% against a market implying 43.5%, but the mismatch flag is deserved: Cleveland has the better record (67-66 vs 52-81) and scores 5.1 RPG to LAA's...