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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-29 / 26 starters
Market
Lines
CHW at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanduel / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

PIT at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanduel / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

DET at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 fanduel / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

NYM at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 bovada / U -149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TEX at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler AlexanderTEX starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -140 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.555%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

WSN at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Miles MikolasWSN starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -112 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 2.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

CIN at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 bovada / U +100 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SDP at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Griffin CanningSDP starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIN at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -149 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 draftkings / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIA at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betonlineag / U -112 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Sean SullivanCOL starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.524%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAA at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betonlineag / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

LAD at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eric LauerLAD starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -165 fanatics / U +138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

SFG at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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