sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-28 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CIN at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady SingerCIN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 betmgm / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

WSN at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zack LittellWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -102 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +113 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TEX at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kumar RockerTEX starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 draftkings / U +130 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +118 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ARI at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PHI at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 fanatics / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cionel PérezNYM starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

HOU at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jack FlahertyDET starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -116 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

SEA at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

COL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 fanduel / U -118 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

CHC at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan RolisonCHC starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%over
O 2.534%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Brandon WoodruffMIL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 betrivers / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIA at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +124 betonlineag / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betrivers / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

OAK at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Aaron CivaleOAK starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -159 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Sam AldegheriLAA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 betonlineag / U +134 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ATL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -150 bovada / U +120 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 7.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySFG starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 fanduel / U -158 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

LAD at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 fanatics / U -108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +117 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYY at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg