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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-27 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
HOU at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kai-Wei TengHOU starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +120 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

NYY at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 betonlineag / U +130 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betrivers / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TEX at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.557%over
O 2.530%over
O 3.513%over
O 4.55%over
O 5.52%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K8.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -140 fanduel / U +114 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.582%over
O 6.570%over
O 7.558%over
O 8.545%over
O 9.533%over
O 10.523%under
O 11.515%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

CIN at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +128 betonlineag / U -145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -130 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PHI at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%under
O 2.545%under
O 3.524%under
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 fanduel / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ARI at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jose CabreraARI starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cole SulserTBR starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

WSN at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Foster GriffinWSN starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +134 betonlineag / U -160 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -152 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

COL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -152 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Mike ParedesMIN starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betrivers / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

CHC at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -139 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

SEA at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -134 betrivers / U +118 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Slade CecconiCLE starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +108 fanduel / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

MIA at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betonlineag / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAD at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 betrivers / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.552%under
O 3.530%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

ATL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce ElderATL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betmgm / U -150 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +123 betrivers / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

OAK at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jack PerkinsOAK starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -133 draftkings / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +125 betmgm / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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