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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-26 / 29 starters
Market
Lines
CIN at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanatics / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -144 draftkings / U +120 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

HOU at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betrivers / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

WSN at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betrivers / U +118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

TEX at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Patrick CorbinTOR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 betmgm / U +140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ARI at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 fanduel / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

PHI at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zach ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

SEA at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

NYY at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betrivers / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

KCR at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Steven CruzKCR starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.536%over
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

David SandlinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.522%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%over
O 5.511%over
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CHC at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Colin ReaCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 bovada / U -154 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K8.8Actual 8 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -118 betmgm / U +116 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 8.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.592%over
O 5.585%over
O 6.575%over
O 7.563%over
O 8.550%under
O 9.538%under
O 10.528%under
O 11.519%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

COL at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betonlineag / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MIA at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max MeyerMIA starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

OAK at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
J.T. GinnOAK starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 betrivers / U +105 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 draftkings / U -159 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAD at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -143 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

ATL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 2.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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