MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-25 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
KCR at DET Jul 25, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +138 fanduel / U -165 betrivers 3 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Casey Mize DET starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 fanatics / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
ARI at WSN Jul 25, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Bratt ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 betmgm / U -109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 79% over
O 2.5 57% over
O 3.5 35% under
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Foster Griffin WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -109 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
LAA at SFG Jul 25, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -109 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 betonlineag / U +105 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SDP at MIA Jul 25, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Vásquez SDP starter / away
Projected K 2.7 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 75% under
O 2.5 50% under
O 3.5 29% under
O 4.5 14% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -150 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% under
O 3.5 83% under
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 53% under
O 6.5 38% under
O 7.5 25% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TOR at BOS Jul 25, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 7.7 Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -103 betrivers / U -110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 87% over
O 5.5 77% over
O 6.5 64% over
O 7.5 50% over
O 8.5 37% over
O 9.5 26% over
O 10.5 17% over
O 11.5 11% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
Sonny Gray BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -146 fanduel / U +125 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at PHI Jul 25, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Weathers NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 bovada / U -145 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tim Mayza PHI starter / home
Projected K 2.4 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 69% under
O 2.5 43% under
O 3.5 22% under
O 4.5 10% under
O 5.5 4% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CLE at TBR Jul 25, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +133 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Nick Martinez TBR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 betrivers / U -123 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CHC at PIT Jul 25, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShota Imanaga CHC starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -148 fanduel / U +120 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 19% over
O 9.5 11% over
O 10.5 6% over
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
ATL at BAL Jul 25, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Elder ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +104 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -143 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
OAK at MIN Jul 25, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Basso OAK starter / away
Projected K 2.9 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 77% over
O 2.5 54% over
O 3.5 32% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Mike Paredes MIN starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82%
O 2.5 61%
O 3.5 39%
O 4.5 22%
O 5.5 11%
O 6.5 5%
O 7.5 2%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
COL at MIL Jul 25, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Feltner COL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +140 betmgm / U -150 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -128 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
HOU at CHW Jul 25, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Brown HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 betrivers / U +115 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 25% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% over
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
SEA at TEX Jul 25, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -116 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.8 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 79% over
O 5.5 65% over
O 6.5 51% over
O 7.5 37% over
O 8.5 25% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CIN at STL Jul 25, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastHunter Greene CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +103 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 fanduel / U -144 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
LAD at NYM Jul 25, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +109 betonlineag / U -130 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% under
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -142 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.