sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-26 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CLE at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 fanatics / U +102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +126 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

ARI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Miles MikolasWSN starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -125 betmgm / U +112 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

CHC at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jameson TaillonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betrivers / U -103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanduel / U +124 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TOR at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 betonlineag / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 betonlineag / U -127 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

ATL at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betrivers / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

LAD at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betmgm / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SDP at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -151 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 betrivers / U +134 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

OAK at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +131 draftkings / U -165 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -133 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

COL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 12 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +103 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 8.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.588%over
O 6.580%over
O 7.569%over
O 8.557%over
O 9.545%over
O 10.533%over
O 11.524%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

HOU at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ronel BlancoHOU starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +134 fanduel / U -162 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Erick FeddeCHW starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 betonlineag / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

CIN at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betrivers / U +134 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -120 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

SEA at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +108 betrivers / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -142 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%under
O 5.569%under
O 6.555%under
O 7.541%under
O 8.529%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

LAA at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoLAA starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 betrivers / U -139 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betmgm / U -114 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

NYY at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 betrivers / U -118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +106 fanduel / U -110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%under
O 7.541%under
O 8.529%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg