MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-07 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
NYM at PIT Aug 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Thornton NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -134 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Carmen Mlodzinski PIT starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +139 draftkings / U -164 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% under
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TOR at PHI Aug 7, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +121 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 29% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CIN at WSN Aug 7, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Petty CIN starter / away
Projected K 2.9 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% under
O 2.5 56% under
O 3.5 34% under
O 4.5 18% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 25% over
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
ATL at NYY Aug 7, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Mahle ATL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 betrivers / U -123 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 51% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Max Fried NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -150 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 34% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
LAA at MIA Aug 7, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGeorge Klassen LAA starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 fanduel / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 20%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% over
O 3.5 36% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at BOS Aug 7, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJack Perkins OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -113 draftkings / U +100 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 14 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 betrivers / U +110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% over
O 7.5 19% over
O 8.5 11% over
O 9.5 6% over
O 10.5 3% over
O 11.5 1% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 14 strikeouts.
MIN at MIL Aug 7, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betmgm / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +113 draftkings / U -134 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CLE at CHW Aug 7, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 fanatics / U +125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Noah Schultz CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -129 betrivers / U +105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% under
O 2.5 74% under
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
CHC at KCR Aug 7, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKevin Gausman CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 draftkings / U -148 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Daniel Lynch IV KCR starter / home
Projected K 2.9 Actual 2 K / Over 1.5
Best price at 1.5 1.5 O -124 draftkings / U -103 draftkings 1 book at this line
Model over 1.5 78%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% over
O 2.5 55% under
O 3.5 33% under
O 4.5 17% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BAL at TEX Aug 7, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Baz BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 draftkings / U -140 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi TEX starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 2 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +112 fanduel / U -127 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% under
O 3.5 91% under
O 4.5 82% under
O 5.5 70% under
O 6.5 56% under
O 7.5 42% under
O 8.5 29% under
O 9.5 19% under
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
COL at STL Aug 7, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Feltner COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +116 betrivers / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -105 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
HOU at SDP Aug 7, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRonel Blanco HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -108 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 bovada / U +104 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
LAD at ARI Aug 7, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRoki Sasaki LAD starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -146 fanduel / U +123 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TBR at SEA Aug 7, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 betonlineag / U +110 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 53% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 25% over
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +126 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 61% over
O 6.5 46% under
O 7.5 32% under
O 8.5 21% under
O 9.5 13% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at SFG Aug 7, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKeider Montero DET starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +112 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 44% over
O 4.5 26% over
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
JT Brubaker SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.