MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-24 / 20 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
BOS at MIA Aug 24, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 bovada / U +110 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 bovada / U -125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TBR at DET Aug 24, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanatics 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Framber Valdez DET starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -145 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% under
O 2.5 75% under
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
COL at WSN Aug 24, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Feltner COL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cade Cavalli WSN starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -104 fanduel / U -116 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TEX at CHW Aug 24, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKumar Rocker TEX starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 draftkings / U +102 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
José Urquidy CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% under
O 3.5 40% under
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
CLE at LAA Aug 24, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastParker Messick CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +120 fanduel / U -144 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 7.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% under
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
George Klassen LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 bovada / U -150 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at SEA Aug 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.7 Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +125 draftkings / U -145 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 79% under
O 5.5 65% under
O 6.5 51% under
O 7.5 37% under
O 8.5 25% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +118 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 65% under
O 6.5 50% under
O 7.5 36% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
PIT at SDP Aug 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBraxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +119 draftkings / U -139 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% under
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 betrivers / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIN at OAK Aug 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betrivers / U -133 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% over
O 6.5 16% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -120 betmgm / U +115 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHC at ARI Aug 24, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKevin Gausman CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 bovada / U +116 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CIN at SFG Aug 24, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +107 betrivers / U -115 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Carson Whisenhunt SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betmgm / U -130 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.