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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-23 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
STL at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 fanduel / U -127 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

TOR at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Carlos RodónNYY starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +110 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

TBR at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +112 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

WSN at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

DET at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob WaguespackDET starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -110 betmgm / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

OAK at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

NYM at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +116 fanduel / U -143 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Sean NewcombCHW starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%over
O 2.546%over
O 3.525%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

LAA at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Yusei KikuchiLAA starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 betmgm / U +124 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanatics / U +134 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CLE at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -147 betonlineag / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 fanduel / U -114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

SFG at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K1.5Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -101 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 2.519%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.543%over
O 2.519%under
O 3.56%under
O 4.52%under
O 5.50%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CHC at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 draftkings / U -114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIN at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

PIT at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +145 draftkings / U -182 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Blake SnellLAD starter / home
Projected K8.3Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 8.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.570%under
O 7.557%under
O 8.544%under
O 9.532%under
O 10.522%under
O 11.515%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CIN at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +106 betrivers / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Mitch BrattARI starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betrivers / U -150 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +129 draftkings / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U +100 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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